SoonerLS Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: if sales in USA are only 4% or 5% of total Ford sales That's 4-5% of unit sales, but what is the percentage of profits? If, f'rinstance, they're only 4-5% of unit sales, but they're accounting for 10-15% of profits, that seems like a pretty good trade. Edited January 16, 2023 by SoonerLS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, SoonerLS said: That's 4-5% of unit sales, but what is the percentage of profits? If, f'rinstance, they're only 4-5% of unit sales, but they're accounting for 10-15% of profits, that seems like a pretty good trade. Hold that thought, F Series makes 75-80% of Ford Motor’s North American profit, so Transit, Expedition, Explorer and Bronco probably make up the rest. Sure, add in Navigator, Aviator and Corsair to that mix……but we’re getting a long way from Lincoln bringing 10-15% of profits. Somewhere in all of those 1.78 million sales are at least 500,000 sales that barely cover development and manufacturing costs. Edited January 16, 2023 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 hours ago, SoonerLS said: If, f'rinstance, they're only 4-5% of unit sales, but they're accounting for 10-15% of profits, that seems like a pretty good trade. 7 hours ago, jpd80 said: Hold that thought, F Series makes 75-80% of Ford Motor’s North American profit, so Transit, Expedition, Explorer and Bronco probably make up the rest. Sure, add in Navigator, Aviator and Corsair to that mix……but we’re getting a long way from Lincoln bringing 10-15% of profits. As recently as 2018, analysts at Morgan Stanley and AlixPartners estimated that Lincoln was one component of Ford Motor Company deemed "unprofitable". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Alan Mularly wanted to eliminate Lincoln and Mercury. I'm guessing the underlying math hasn't changed that much. Lincoln's pivot to SUVs probably helped a bit since they have higher margin but on a worldwide product portfolio basis, Ford definitely makes more profit from selling vans than Lincoln. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/14/2023 at 5:10 PM, DeluxeStang said: Hasn't Lincoln experienced quite the turn around in terms of sales and brand perception? They're not challenging mainstream brands for sales figures, but I thought they were doing decently well compared to 5-10 years ago. Maybe I'm wrong son. it’s certainly helped with image but sales haven’t shot up….., ATPs definitely have on roughly the same volume, though. On 1/15/2023 at 9:21 AM, rperez817 said: Here are the U.S. sales figures for Lincoln Motor Car Company (thank you jpd80 for the 2022 total). In the past 6 years, it achieved a YOY increase only once, from 2018 to 2019. 2022: 83,486 2021: 86,929 2020: 105,410 2019: 112,204 2018: 103,587 2017: 111,159 Here are the China sales numbers. China became Lincoln's largest market in 2021. 2022 sales numbers for China aren't yet available, but they should exceed Lincoln sales in the U.S. market. 2022: (not available yet) 2021: 87,953 2020: 39,185 2019: 46,629 2018: 55,315 2017: 54,124 In terms of brand perception, it is quite good in China, less so in the U.S. Lincoln's initiatives in both markets for "electrifying its entire portfolio of vehicles by the end of the decade" should improve consumer perception of the Lincoln brand. Details on some of those initiatives were mentioned in this press release from June 2021. Lincoln Accelerates Brand Transformation; Plans to Deliver a Full Portfolio of Connected and Electrified Vehicles by 2030 | Lincoln Media Center thanks for providing that. it’s worth noting that the big drop from 20 to 21 is because of dropping the sedans. Lincoln has been down 21,924 units the last two years 2021-2022 combined (compared to 2020/21). But 17,780 of that is from losing the sedans, and “only” 4,144 of that is SUV losses over that period, and considering parts issues, that’s not terrible. but as I pointed out in other threads, while numbers may recover and grow slightly given better part supply, I don’t see a lot of growth ability in the short term, with new product not coming online for another 1.5-2 years. The Chinese Nautilus would help tide things over during EV transition, but it seems that’s likely not coming here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/14/2023 at 4:14 PM, jpd80 said: US Lincoln sales for 2022 were 83,486 versus 1,780,978 sales for Ford brand vehicles Thats like just over 4% of Ford’s sales That's not terrible considering all the factors working against the auto industry at the moment. More interesting is the fact that starting around 2015/16 Lincoln started to reverse the sales decline they had experienced between '05-14. So the brands efforts to turn itself around have worked quite well with decent sales figures than only started to trail off around 2020 for obvious reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 As we get closer and closer to the looming recession luxury car sales are going to take a bigger hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANTAUS Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Quote Lincoln now says 356 of its roughly 600 dealers, representing about 88% of its sales volume, have committed to this electric future, according to Automotive News. These are the ones that are truly paying the rent. It reminds me when people tell me "Oh its just a rental" (here in FL), and I'm like "my rentals look better than your house, it's paid for, and I'm paying full property taxes cause it's not "homesteaded".... (Homesteaded is a FL thing where, if you live in your home, you have exceptions of 100-150K of the value of your house, that you dont have to pay in property taxes-Meaning your 800K home you probably pay $4-5K in property taxes, but the house next door that sold for the same amount from a family in Ohio is paying $15K), anyhow....At the end of the day, THEY, WE are paying the real deal than others. So these dealers have the real sales that will support the decision Ford is making. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: That's not terrible considering all the factors working against the auto industry at the moment. More interesting is the fact that starting around 2015/16 Lincoln started to reverse the sales decline they had experienced between '05-14. So the brands efforts to turn itself around have worked quite well with decent sales figures than only started to trail off around 2020 for obvious reasons. But that’s like saying that Lincoln was doing well until they weren’t…… Yes, I get that Lincoln’s are good high value incremental sales on top of Expedition, Explorer, Edge and Escape but I wonder if in some way they take away from Ford’s own top trim sales……If Lincoln suddenly wasn’t there, would Ford high trim sales increase by another couple of thousand on each model? Edited January 17, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 hours ago, jpd80 said: ……If Lincoln suddenly wasn’t there, would Ford high trim sales increase by another couple of thousand on each model? If Lincoln wasn't there (and it almost wasn't) I would assume Ford would move to a Vignale like trim level for the lost sales. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, twintornados said: If Lincoln wasn't there (and it almost wasn't) I would assume Ford would move to a Vignale like trim level for the lost sales. That’s what I was alluding to, a higher Ford trim to absorb Lincoln but as we know, that’s a line in the sand for the Ford family…. Edited January 17, 2023 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 hours ago, jpd80 said: But that’s like saying that Lincoln was doing well until they weren’t…… Yes, I get that Lincoln’s are good high value incremental sales on top of Expedition, Explorer, Edge and Escape but I wonder if in some way they take away from Ford’s own top trim sales……If Lincoln suddenly wasn’t there, would Ford high trim sales increase by another couple of thousand on each model? Maybe a slight bit, such as those who go into a combined dealership thinking they want an Explorer and end up falling in love with an Aviator. Plus, there are some car buyers who are intensely automaker-loyal (if not brand loyal and so would insist on buying a Ford if a Lincoln wasn't available), but that's a declining number these days. The truth of the matter is that most Lincoln buyers like me would just go over to Audi or MB or Cadillac or Genesis or something. Before I decided to buy my Nautilus (having come from an Audi Q5) I had a deposit down on a Range Rover Velar. Before I decided to buy out my Nautilus lease when its 3 years was up I was mainly looking at Genesis GV80 and MB GLE as a replacement, with Nautilus production coming to an end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The one issue I can see with Lincoln is that it doesn’t have snob appeal in its name like Lexus, Mercedes or BMW. People buy those brands to show off, but that might be changing as society seems to be pulling away from doing that-for better or worse. On the flip side, Lincoln had more room (price/profit wise)to grow then high end Ford trim IMO too. IMO there is going to be a lot of changes in the market in the next 10 years with different manufacturers 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: The one issue I can see with Lincoln is that it doesn’t have snob appeal in its name That could be an advantage for Lincoln. With proper marketing, that lack of snob appeal combined with a 100% electric vehicle lineup could meld very well with Lincoln's theme of understated luxury, "Quiet Flight". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I don’t see many Aviator buyers going to an Explorer Vignale. A decade or two ago sure but they’ve stepped up the Lincoln design and features quite considerably the last few years. I don’t think it’s going away anytime soon. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12 hours ago, jpd80 said: But that’s like saying that Lincoln was doing well until they weren’t…… Yes, I get that Lincoln’s are good high value incremental sales on top of Expedition, Explorer, Edge and Escape but I wonder if in some way they take away from Ford’s own top trim sales……If Lincoln suddenly wasn’t there, would Ford high trim sales increase by another couple of thousand on each model? I say no. You may get a small number (a few thousand of the 80k+), but luxury buyers want luxury, and Fords of late don’t come close to that, especially with the decontenting we keep seeing. there was a time during the Mulally years when certain Ford products got close but that also spoke to how low Lincoln’s were at the time, which they’ve definitely fixed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerLS Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 A Vignale trim might work in Europe, where you don’t have Lincoln and you do have Mercedes taxis, but I don’t see that working here. As much as we may have in common, Europeans and Americans have very different ideas about some things. About 20-25 years ago, Ford had a senior exec (his name escapes me at the moment) who decided Americans wanted European handling instead of American power, and that went over like a fart in church… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Handler Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 Lincoln has definitely made significant progress, so I hope Ford doesn't throw in the towel. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullynd Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 hours ago, jpd80 said: That’s what I was alluding to, a higher Ford trim to absorb Lincoln but as we know, that’s a line in the sand for the Ford family…. There are certainly some who would not buy a Ford, even if upgraded. The question is how many, and are they worth the opportunity cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 hours ago, jpd80 said: That’s what I was alluding to, a higher Ford trim to absorb Lincoln but as we know, that’s a line in the sand for the Ford family…. Yes, it was surprising that the Ford Family allowed Mercury to be shuttered as it was an Edsel Ford creation, but Edsel held Lincoln dear to his heart even more so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, twintornados said: Yes, it was surprising that the Ford Family allowed Mercury to be shuttered as it was an Edsel Ford creation, but Edsel held Lincoln dear to his heart even more so. I think they realized it was nothing but a badge job with no potential being stuck as a “tweener” brand, vs Lincoln, which while it was also a badge job at the time, had the potential to push higher into a full luxury brand. Mercury’s ceiling only went so high. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, rmc523 said: I think they realized it was nothing but a badge job with no potential being stuck as a “tweener” brand, vs Lincoln, which while it was also a badge job at the time, had the potential to push higher into a full luxury brand. Mercury’s ceiling only went so high. What really offended Millay was that Mercury was pitched as lightly changed Fords to be sold to customers who would never buy a Ford product…. I get what Ford was striving to do with Lincoln’s developed from Fords, new skin sheet metal and better trims is way more than badge engineering but the degree of differentiation that was paid for is questionable and insufficient. A completely new top hat with even more change would not have been unreasonable. To see the same door/hatch openings and frames from a Ford is a little disappointing and probably something that should have stayed in the 2000s, I don’t always agree with accountants controlling costs so much that it damages a brand like Lincoln (under achieving) Edited January 18, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Top trim Ford has a price ceiling. Lincoln has a price floor. All things being equal, if you already got Lincoln, there is no reason to abandon that and go with Ford Vignale or whatevers. And the reverse is also true... if Lincoln is not already in the market, there is little sense to invest in it. Just put in a fancy interior in a Ford and charge more. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Handler Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 The Expedition Platinum already starts at $80k. A trim above that is still going to look and feel like a Ford. You're simply not going to get the exclusivity, refinement, and high-end design of a luxury brand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justins Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:54 PM, fuzzymoomoo said: As we get closer and closer to the looming recession luxury car sales are going to take a bigger hit. Middle luxury, maybe. Like Lincoln, Lexus, Cadillac, Genesis etc. True luxury, not so much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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