ice-capades Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 3 hours ago, jpd80 said: Here’s a bit from the article some of you can’t see… So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible… The small van segment has always been a niche market but even with the relatively small market size the Transit Connect has dominated the market for a long time. It's hard to sell product like the Transit Connect, that you can't stock because there hasn't been any stock allocation available for months on end and has an OTD (Order to Delivery) of 6 months. No doubt, between the declining sales figures and the success of the Maverick and Bronco Sport, there just isn't plant capacity available to justify building a next generation TC in North America. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Ford/VW relationship going forward but I'm not counting on it being long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, ice-capades said: there just isn't plant capacity available to justify building a next generation TC in North America. There's room in Louisville Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HotRunrGuy Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 3 hours ago, jpd80 said: So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible… With a $10K difference in base price between TC and Transit (cargo), there's work to be done. HRG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 (edited) 26 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: There's room in Louisville Agreed. I think it's more a matter of justifying the expense for the relatively small production numbers for anticipated sales. And I don't see TC buyers moving up to the full-size Transit, even the base T-150 SWB. Edited August 24, 2022 by ice-capades Additional Content Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazerdude20 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 You can’t buy what isn’t available. We waited ten months for our vans. Even when I worked at a ford dealership they could never keep stock of them. It’s strange. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Maybe a fleet version of the Maverick with a cap on the bed would be a better fit for some customers? Or remove the rear seats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 6 hours ago, jpd80 said: Here’s a bit from the article some of you can’t see… So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible… yeah I feel this is a self-inflicted wound. Limits on importing, plus chip/production issues, and invisibly sales will be down. I won’t be surprised to see a BEV replacement come out down the road, though. Too big of a gap below Transit, IMO, not to have something in the segment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Maybe a fleet version of the Maverick with a cap on the bed would be a better fit for some customers? Or remove the rear seats That's similar to what I was thinking. Replace the whole bed with a van type replacement instead of a cap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Maybe a fleet version of the Maverick with a cap on the bed would be a better fit for some customers? Or remove the rear seats haha sounds like the reverse reasoning for dropping….Ranger I think it was ? “Customers can go to fiesta or transit connect” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, jpd80 said: Here’s a bit from the article some of you can’t see… So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible… I would frame the sales decline in context. It's probably not for lack of demand but more of a supply issue. Nissan NV200 was never designed for duty cycle typically seen in North America. The skinny tires tells the whole story. Nissan kept the thing in the market for many years because Carlos Ghosn insisted Nissan be a player in commercial fleet sale and NV200 made sense as a companion model to the larger NV2500 vans. Their departure from US market was predictable as soon as Carlos Ghosn was gone... It was an uphill battle for Nissan to try to muscle in on the commercial fleet sales market in the US with poor product fit and lack of fleet solutions. Ford is simply too strong of a player. If Toyota knows not to challenge Ford, Nissan didn't really stand a chance. Transit Connect sales started falling once Ford knew it was going to lose the Chicken Tax case - volume dropped because Ford was holding back the imports. Likewise Stellantis which used the same tactics for Promaster City slowed down the import once it was clear Ford lost the case and Treasury will come after them next. 4 hours ago, blazerdude20 said: You can’t buy what isn’t available. We waited ten months for our vans. Even when I worked at a ford dealership they could never keep stock of them. It’s strange. The long supply chain and limited fleet customization option was always the challenge with TC. And Ford drastically reduced the volume once the Chicken Tax case went south. 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: Maybe a fleet version of the Maverick with a cap on the bed would be a better fit for some customers? Or remove the rear seats That's the project that got cancelled. V758 was supposed to be a van version of P758 (Maverick). It was going to be optimized for North America form factor (longer and wider) and which is why Ford Europe bailed out of the project and went with rebadged VW Caddy because it was shorter but with taller roof, more in line with market demand and preference there. Edited August 24, 2022 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 1 hour ago, bzcat said: That's the project that got cancelled. V758 was supposed to be a van version of P758 (Maverick). It was going to be optimized for North America form factor (longer and wider) and which is why Ford Europe bailed out of the project and went with rebadged VW Caddy because it was shorter but with taller roof, more in line with market demand and preference there. I’m aware of that-I was just thinking of some low lying fruit for Ford if they didn’t want to completely pull out of the market that would have almost no engineering costs. It would appeal to the people who had caps or setups on The old Ranger like Orkin did years ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HotRunrGuy Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: It would appeal to the people who had caps or setups on The old Ranger like Orkin did years ago. Funny you mention that, once I put a $3500 cap on my Maverick build, a 300A Explorer isn't that far away,,,, HRG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GearheadGrrrl Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Ford thought Ranger buyers would buy F150s, instead they bought mid size pickups from Ford's competitors... And a few years later at much greater expense Ford had to bring Ranger back. Now Ford thinks Transit Connect buyers will switch to big Transit? Fat chance, big Transit won't even fit in my garage! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 1 hour ago, GearheadGrrrl said: Ford thought Ranger buyers would buy F150s, instead they bought mid size pickups from Ford's competitors... And a few years later at much greater expense Ford had to bring Ranger back. Now Ford thinks Transit Connect buyers will switch to big Transit? Fat chance, big Transit won't even fit in my garage! Correct on all counts GearheadGrrrl. When the previous gen Ranger was discontinued in 2011, I think one Ford executive suggested that Transit Connect would be an appropriate substitute for Ranger! That's almost as idiotic as the idea that Ranger customers would consider buying an F-150. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 7 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: There's room in Louisville I thought it needed to be in Mexico to support exports to Latin and South America? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 IMO, Bronco Sport and Maverick are both great products that are in demand, a much better use of the Transit Connect version of the C2 platform. This is all linked back to Farley cutting costs in Ford Blue and doubling down on products that improve profit. Anyone wanting a smallish van will be pointed to the SWB Transit and if they get a few TC buyer then that’s all Ford expects, they’re done chasing low profit segments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, akirby said: I thought it needed to be in Mexico to support exports to Latin and South America? Even that doesn’t stack up now, the South Americans are wary of Mexico dumping products in their market as those can probably be supplied from Europe anyway… I’m wondering what will happen at Louisville if indeed Escape sales continue stay low, Ford branding it as a commodity product doesn’t help. Is Ford planning another product there or setting Louisville up for the chop later this decade…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 52 minutes ago, jpd80 said: I’m wondering what will happen at Louisville if indeed Escape sales continue stay low, Ford branding it as a commodity product doesn’t help. Is Ford planning another product there or setting Louisville up for the chop later this decade…. Sounds like a perfect opportunity to bring in C2 Nautilus hybrids to go with Corsair and Hermosillo overflow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodrigo Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 jpd80, Brasil and Argentina they have agreements with Mexico and do not pay import duties. On the other hand, if a car arrives from Europe, it pays a 35% tariff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Rodrigo said: jpd80, Brasil and Argentina they have agreements with Mexico and do not pay import duties. On the other hand, if a car arrives from Europe, it pays a 35% tariff. I could be working off old information when Brazil and Argentina were more protective of their markets. Either way, it looks like Ford is dropping vehicles that it sees as “not important” have been doing so for the past 20 years…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 2 hours ago, jpd80 said: I’m wondering what will happen at Louisville if indeed Escape sales continue stay low, Ford branding it as a commodity product doesn’t help. Is Ford planning another product there or setting Louisville up for the chop later this decade…. The proximity of the 2 battery plants to be built in Kentucky favor a future for Louisville to build an EV product(s) in the future, the logistics savings would presumably be compelling. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to build 2 battery plants so far from other production sites - especially since Ford have already shown their preferred model (battery plants on site with production) with the design of Blue Oval City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Harley Lover said: The proximity of the 2 battery plants to be built in Kentucky favor a future for Louisville to build an EV product(s) in the future, the logistics savings would presumably be compelling. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to build 2 battery plants so far from other production sites - especially since Ford have already shown their preferred model (battery plants on site with production) with the design of Blue Oval City. I think those logistics would be more for the benefit of Kentucky Truck Plant than Louisville, there’s already a Super Duty BEV in development as well as BEV Expedition/Navigator….. I have a soft spot for Escape but I think it’s been mishandled as Kuga / Escape ( not enough US input) and Ford has a real problem with affordable compact BEV anything, they need C2 hybrid & PHEV for now….. Edited August 25, 2022 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 7 hours ago, akirby said: I thought it needed to be in Mexico to support exports to Latin and South America? Then Ford can move some Maverick and Bronco sport production to the US. Build the Maverick and/or Bronco Sport at Louisville or Flat Rock for the US market, and use Hermosillo as the source for export markets and overflow for US demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Harley Lover said: The proximity of the 2 battery plants to be built in Kentucky favor a future for Louisville to build an EV product(s) in the future, the logistics savings would presumably be compelling. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to build 2 battery plants so far from other production sites - especially since Ford have already shown their preferred model (battery plants on site with production) with the design of Blue Oval City. A lot of these plant sites- as we seen with GM, Toyota, and Stellantis- are selected using the center of gravity model. In a nutshell it means selecting a site that balances out the shipping costs. I do not know how these things are shipped, but if it were by truck, it would be a day's drive to any of Ford's plants in North America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 7 hours ago, jpd80 said: IMO, Bronco Sport and Maverick are both great products that are in demand, a much better use of the Transit Connect version of the C2 platform. This is all linked back to Farley cutting costs in Ford Blue and doubling down on products that improve profit. Anyone wanting a smallish van will be pointed to the SWB Transit and if they get a few TC buyer then that’s all Ford expects, they’re done chasing low profit segments. Or they will be pointed to a competitor as they will with the Edge discontinuation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.