Escape, Edge, TC to be Killed

[DeluxeStang]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

I wouldn’t mind a 20 minute recharge.  The problem may be finding an available charger immediately.  If they’re all busy then it’s a 40 or 60 minute wait.

Yeah, it's a problem, but I believe a lot of charging networks are becoming advanced enough to sell you if a stall is already taken while you're still miles away. I believe they can even tell you the state of charge of the car using it so you can get a better idea of how long the car may be sitting there. 

 

One of the smartest concepts I've seen from Elon in awhile is developing a network of restaurants and drive-in theaters next to chargers. Giving people something to do while waiting for their cars to charge, or for a slot to open up. It'll make the wait less frustrating for sure. 

 

It's a hurdle, but I'm confident we'll overcome it with time. 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Am I wrong or has a lot of the consumer side urgency for Autonomous Vehicles died down?

Maybe Covid intervention and work at home showed people alternative ways of thinking

that would not otherwise have been possible…

What happened is the “experts” found out exactly what the IT people have been trying to tell them about the real world challenges that can’t easily be overcome with software and sensors,   They thought because it works in a controlled lab environment or “sunny day scenarios” in the real world that it would work 100%.  So the focus is on driver assistance with a few autonomous use cases in co trolled environments.

[jpd80]

6 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

Yeah, it's a problem, but I believe a lot of charging networks are becoming advanced enough to sell you if a stall is already taken while you're still miles away. I believe they can even tell you the state of charge of the car using it so you can get a better idea of how long the car may be sitting there. 

 

One of the smartest concepts I've seen from Elon in awhile is developing a network of restaurants and drive-in theaters next to chargers. Giving people something to do while waiting for their cars to charge, or for a slot to open up. It'll make the wait less frustrating for sure. 

 

It's a hurdle, but I'm confident we'll overcome it with time. 

Agree but we are in that in between period where things are still coming,

watching to see how Ford owners accessing Tesla charging network goes.

That access to Tesla network may overcome a lot of current charging issues…….

[akirby]

10 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

Yeah, it's a problem, but I believe a lot of charging networks are becoming advanced enough to sell you if a stall is already taken while you're still miles away. I believe they can even tell you the state of charge of the car using it so you can get a better idea of how long the car may be sitting there. 

 

One of the smartest concepts I've seen from Elon in awhile is developing a network of restaurants and drive-in theaters next to chargers. Giving people something to do while waiting for their cars to charge, or for a slot to open up. It'll make the wait less frustrating for sure. 

 

It's a hurdle, but I'm confident we'll overcome it with time. 

It’s a temporary issue but it may be a long time before it’s overcome outside large cities and interstates.

[DeluxeStang]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

They are the future. Development of autonomous vehicle technologies is part of Ford's Model e business unit, which includes Latitude AI. Latitude AI | LinkedIn

Semi autonomous cars have a future, cars with level 5 autonomy, where you don't even have a steering wheel, accelerate or brake, I don't think that's gonna take off in my life time. Just look at how long autopilot has been around in planes, I want to say about 80 years in one form or another. As good as automated systems are, people want to have the option to take over.

 

Plus, even advanced automated systems have been known to have glaring safety flaws. Using some aviation examples, the Boeing 373 max 8 was one of the biggest corporate disasters I've ever seen. Boeing threw a rushed and questionable automated system into their most popular model, refused to tell the pilots about it, or train them on how to disabled it in an emergency, so when it malfunctioned in multiple planes, it killed everyone on-board and destroyed Boeing's reputation, maybe permanently. 

 

Now imagine if Boeing kept that system, took the pilots out of the cockpit entirely, and then made hundreds of thousands of those planes. That's what mainstream adoption of level 5 autonomy would be like. I'm not saying it'll never exist, but that it shouldn't become commonplace on our roads. I don't know a single person who would get in a car without a human driver, even young tech loving types are against it. 

[DeluxeStang]

12 minutes ago, akirby said:

It’s a temporary issue but it may be a long time before it’s overcome outside large cities and interstates.

It's a chicken or the egg kind of situation. The expense of building way more public chargers means a lot of companies are holding off until EVs explode in popularity to make it worth the investment. But EVs aren't exploding in popularity because the infrastructure in rural areas isn't great. 

[jpd80]

10 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

It's a chicken or the egg kind of situation. The expense of building way more public chargers means a lot of companies are holding off until EVs explode in popularity to make it worth the investment. But EVs aren't exploding in popularity because the infrastructure in rural areas isn't great. 

Ford negotiating access to the Tesla charging system is a huge step forward, giving Tesla a much bigger reason

to expand its charging network more quickly. I’m hoping that more companies follow Ford’s example and make 

Tesla’s network the default national system, there’s no point in everyone having to reinvent the wheel.

Edited September 10, 2023 by jpd80

[ice-capades]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Correct, I don’t believe that a lot of revenue is coming from BEV Transit or from telematic sales.

All ford has done is disconnect those valuable commercial sales from Ford Blue as a way of

reducing its perceived role as main profit earner for Ford.

 

I'm not sure about the Transit BEV although I understand your reasoning. Total Transit sales are up 49.9% YTD with the E-Transit up 16.6% YTD with August E-Transit sales up 120% compared to August 2022.

[jpd80]

16 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

I'm not sure about the Transit BEV although I understand your reasoning. Total Transit sales are up 49.9% YTD with the E-Transit up 16.6% YTD with August E-Transit sales up 120% compared to August 2022.

While sales are on the increase, I don’t like talking in percentages because sometimes the facts get lost…….

August sales of E Transit were 889 and 4,592 year to date so not exactly setting the world on fire…

I was kind of anticipating 5,000 or 6,000 sales a month by now…..unreal expectations?

Edited September 10, 2023 by jpd80

[silvrsvt]

3 hours ago, T-dubz said:

Also, you are assuming that you can find an open charger. If you drive by any Costco gas station, you will see cars lined up waiting for gas. It’s only a couple of minutes per car at a gas pump, but how long would you be there if they were all EVs? You could be there all day.

 

That is a false equivalency at this point-my local BJs has long lines because its fuel is cheaper than other gas stations, which there are  at least half of dozen or so with in a 5 mile radius. 

 

The other way of looking at this is like this-do you really need to charge ever day? No, its just like an ICE. Its going to take some adjusting to, yes, because its different.

 

Level 2 charging adds about 10-20 miles per hour while you charge. So basically if your charged at home, you can "top off" again when you get to your destination, like Target. They are easier to install because they demand as much electric as other types of charings stations. 

 

DC fast charging can recharge an empty battery in 20 minutes to an hour-which I"m going to assume is what you'll find on interstates in the future. 

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Am I wrong or has a lot of the consumer side urgency for Autonomous Vehicles died down

 

Much like other tech things, they are way oversold (sorta like AI at this point) and to a much lesser degree, EVs, because someone wants to get rich off stocks or IPOs. 

 

In the grand scheme of things, AVs would make traffic even worse because you'd need at least a 3/4:1 ratio of vehicles to make it work-a vehicle going some place to pick up someone, one taking some place, a third returning and a fourth of maintenance/traffic/etc...I don't see them replacing cars unless there is huge sociological changes, even if they technically capable 

[paintguy]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Agree but we are in that in between period where things are still coming,

watching to see how Ford owners accessing Tesla charging network goes.

That access to Tesla network may overcome a lot of current charging issues…….

So much of the Tesla network will potentially solve some problems.  How many Tesla chargers will be open to Ford and others? How much will on the road chargers charge per KWH? How fast can a Tesla charger charge a Ford? Will you bet $50K on a new MachE? The ones I know who did are well off and use the MachE for shorter trips and charge at home. For me, a BEV will need to replace my ICE vehicle in all aspects. 

[jpd80]

28 minutes ago, paintguy said:

So much of the Tesla network will potentially solve some problems.  How many Tesla chargers will be open to Ford and others? How much will on the road chargers charge per KWH? How fast can a Tesla charger charge a Ford? Will you bet $50K on a new MachE? The ones I know who did are well off and use the MachE for shorter trips and charge at home. For me, a BEV will need to replace my ICE vehicle in all aspects. 

Current BEVs still have some significant shortfalls with respect to range and charging speed,

I still think that they should be a second or third vehicle in multi vehicle families, not the main vehicle

unless those buyers go in eyes open..

Edited September 10, 2023 by jpd80

[AGR]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

If you look closely, rperez817 is simply boots n all in on Ford’s current stated plan,

I was once like him quoting the leader chapter and verse to others here until one day,

I realised just how many times Ford changes its plans and more to the point why that’s done.

 

Locking yourself into a long term goal is one thing but what is done month to month, year to year

can have a huge bearing on Ford’s profitability and the ability to execute those long term goals.

I don’t consider myself a rabid anti-EV poster, I’m just cautious of believing everything that Ford PR says.

 

You weren't one of the people to whom I was referring.

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, AGR said:

 

You weren't one of the people to whom I was referring.

Thanks for that but on reflection, I feel I’ve been a bit too aggressive in this thread,

fans should be optimistic about so much happening at Ford, don’t want to kill the buzz…

[ice-capades]

11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

While sales are on the increase, I don’t like talking in percentages because sometimes the facts get lost…….

August sales of E Transit were 889 and 4,592 year to date so not exactly setting the world on fire…

I was kind of anticipating 5,000 or 6,000 sales a month by now…..unreal expectations?

 

Unfortunately, we don't have enough information about the plant production capacity, etc. to interpret the numbers accurately. The gas Transit is doing extremely well and dominating the market. I don't know what the plant setup is between Transit and E-Transit production and wonder if the E-Transit production is somehow constrained due to the demand for the regular Transit. In any event, I too would have expected the E-Transit numbers to be substantially higher by this time. 

[Harley Lover]

25 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

Unfortunately, we don't have enough information about the plant production capacity, etc. to interpret the numbers accurately. The gas Transit is doing extremely well and dominating the market. I don't know what the plant setup is between Transit and E-Transit production and wonder if the E-Transit production is somehow constrained due to the demand for the regular Transit. In any event, I too would have expected the E-Transit numbers to be substantially higher by this time. 

 

The flip side of this question is how many units is GM selling of its product via Brightdrop (or whatever it's called). In some ways, the GM product is superior in the sense its a bespoke EV chassis versus Ford's 'stopgap' product with E-Transit until the next gen chassis is ready. That said, I don't know if there's any evidence in the form of sales figures that would demonstrate that GM is ahead of Ford in this segment. If GM sales are lagging Ford in this segment, they might fall back on the excuse of battery availability.

[7Mary3]

The BrightDrop vans are not in the same class as the Transit EV.  The BrightDrop vehicles are purely commercial trucks for last mile delivery like FedEx.  The BrightDrop has more interior volume and is a 'step-van' type of vehicle.  From what I understand, GM is planning a BEV van to compete with the Transit EV that will be a 'ground-up' EV along with (surprisingly) an updated Savanna/Express ICE van.

[twintornados]

I was thinking about why Ford would kill off Escape and then thought, if they kill off Escape and come out with an SUV based on Maverick AND build it at Hermosillo along side Maverick, it may be the replacement Ford can use to replace both Escape and Transit Connect sales.

[sullynd]

41 minutes ago, twintornados said:

I was thinking about why Ford would kill off Escape and then thought, if they kill off Escape and come out with an SUV based on Maverick AND build it at Hermosillo along side Maverick, it may be the replacement Ford can use to replace both Escape and Transit Connect sales.

You just invented the Bronco Sport. 

[akirby]

53 minutes ago, twintornados said:

I was thinking about why Ford would kill off Escape and then thought, if they kill off Escape and come out with an SUV based on Maverick AND build it at Hermosillo along side Maverick, it may be the replacement Ford can use to replace both Escape and Transit Connect sales.

Surely that was sarcasm…..

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, twintornados said:

I was thinking about why Ford would kill off Escape and then thought, if they kill off Escape and come out with an SUV based on Maverick AND build it at Hermosillo along side Maverick, it may be the replacement Ford can use to replace both Escape and Transit Connect sales.

A sensible though and what some here were hoping for a few years ago but then we were told that

Maverick Utility development was cancelled because of the perceived competition with Escape.

[mustang84isu]

It's interesting that pundits and journalists were predicting death of the ICE, but YTD Ford's ICE sales are actually up a couple percent more than BEV sales. 

 

However, Ford just can't seem to get in the right groove in this transition to BEV.  They were way too late to the EV game...dragging their feet with compliance vehicles like the Focus Electric when the EV market was still pretty young and they would have had a better shot at picking up early market share.  Now they have killed off sedans and have let other bread-and-butter vehicles languish during the 2020-2021 inflation mania and stock market boom that would be a beneficial to have in this post-COVID inflation hangover.  Went all in on SUV's and trucks when gas prices were still low, and finally went all in on BEV's during the same 2021 inflationary bubble.  The timing couldn't have been worse.

 

Ford continues to throw well known names such as Focus, Fusion, and possibly now Escape in the trash.  It boggles the mind.  Maybe they'll come back as EV's?  But then we hear things like they don't want to be in the two-row EV crossover segment because it's too competitive.  Huh?  Build a competitive two-row crossover then.  Put the same energy you put into the F-150 Lighting, Mach-E, Maverick, and Bronco.  Ford is becoming so timid these days that I fear they are permanently ceding market share to competitors, and we all know that once you lose those customers, it is hard to get them back.  Sure, margins and profitability are important, but so far shrinking the business hasn't yielded the intended results.  Ford's profit last year was about the same as 2017, and actually less than 2015 & 2013.  And Ford's stock price continues to be in the gutter because they can't seem to stick to a consistent product strategy or focused message.  It's going to be an agonizing next couple years until BlueOvalCity is finally online and the next generation of EV's start rolling out.

[twintornados]

6 hours ago, akirby said:

Surely that was sarcasm…..

 

No

[twintornados]

6 hours ago, sullynd said:

You just invented the Bronco Sport. 

 

Let me know when the hybrid FWD Bronco Sport shows up