That’s a lot of information. Can you provide link to source of estimates? I’ll address some of your question if I can (not sure I have answers) but would first like to know what the trailer is. I see trailer weight and Cd of 0.5, but don’t see frontal area. That’s very important and hopefully I’m not just missing it. Power and energy estimates are in the right ball park compared to what I would expect, but would like to see assumptions nonetheless. Proper context is crucial.
I Have a 21 Navigator that I now have taken back to the dealership (I'm on my second Lincoln dealership now) at least 6 times now because of this same issue. First, they tried to reset the PCM, then they replaced some seals, then they tried telling me it was due to my driving and tried to tell me that I should probably not use the "Excite" mode as often. I'm sorry, if I can't use the excite mode, then why put the option on the vehicle? My Navigator is currently at the second dealership and they finally agreed with me that this is a problem and are now replacing the transfer case. I did read on another forum post somewhere that replacing the transfer case solved another Navigator owners issue that sounded similar to this. I will update as soon as I get my vehicle back and a few "Excite" miles under the belt.
I don’t claim to be an expert on this matter, but GM had to add a clutch and a direct connection of the ICE for the Volt to improve efficiency. This resulted in a 10-15% efficiency improvement for highway driving.
It seems to be highway driving where EREVs struggle and if the OP's article is to be believed that is the problem Ford is struggling with.