Ford pushes back EV target, warns of wider losses due to slower-than-expected adoption

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Regarding Farley's comment about ICE-like EV platforms, he is likely referring to almost all major incumbent automakers that compete with Ford with the notable exception of General Motors. Last year John McElroy spoke about the huge disadvantage of ICE-like EV platforms, what he described as scar tissue. ICE-Based BEVs: Let’s Talk Scar Tissue (wardsauto.com)

So the context of his statement is more about “ICE-based BEV platforms”, or is it 2-row crossover field being too crowded, or that he thinks many who “bet the farm” will be big losers?  Or all of above?  His statement implies that investing a lot more in 2-row crossovers or ICE-based platforms would have been a mistake, one he’s glad Ford didn’t make.  If so, justifies slower transition.

[rperez817]

18 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

So the context of his statement is more about “ICE-based BEV platforms”, or is it 2-row crossover field being too crowded, or that he thinks many who “bet the farm” will be big losers?  Or all of above? 

 

Based on Jim Farley's desire for Ford to emphasize a totally different, vertically integrated approach to BEV design, engineering, manufacturing, and sales; his emphasis on "passion" or "icon" brands; and also for Ford to exit overcrowded and/or low margin segments, I think it's all of the above.

Edited August 18, 2023 by rperez817

[ice-capades]

From the editorial pages of this morning's Las Vegas Review-Journal...

 

[sullynd]

Yesterday was my one year anniversary with my Lightning. Just over 17k miles. I’ve taken it to Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Total charging cost: $1,268. A similar gas F150 would have used nearly $4k in gas. Average charge time (public/fast charging) was 27.54 minutes.

[Rick73]

21 hours ago, sullynd said:

Yesterday was my one year anniversary with my Lightning. Just over 17k miles. I’ve taken it to Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Total charging cost: $1,268. A similar gas F150 would have used nearly $4k in gas. Average charge time (public/fast charging) was 27.54 minutes.

Saving over $200 per month is really good.  If you track it, would you mind sharing miles per kWh?  Or cost per kWh to get $1,268?
 

I can’t justify BEV price premium based on energy savings where I live because gas is relatively cheap and electricity a little expensive, and may get worse.  Not that I would decide vehicle purchase based solely on energy savings paying for higher initial price.  A rough guess is that I would have spent +/- $1,700 for electricity at $0.20/kWh and about $3,000 for gas at +/- 20 MPG.  My savings would have been about half of yours.  To make BEV even harder to justify, we drive each vehicle closer to about 8,500 miles per year, so total energy savings would be well under $1,000 per year.  That doesn’t pay for much initial price premium.

 

For buyers who are comparing much smaller and fuel-efficient vehicles, energy savings between BEV and comparable-size ICE or HEV doesn’t add up to much.  For mass adoption to succeed, in my opinion lower vehicle cost will be necessary unless gasoline is artificially made much more expensive.

 

[jpd80]

On 8/21/2023 at 12:41 AM, Rick73 said:

Saving over $200 per month is really good.  If you track it, would you mind sharing miles per kWh?  Or cost per kWh to get $1,268?
 

I can’t justify BEV price premium based on energy savings where I live because gas is relatively cheap and electricity a little expensive, and may get worse.  Not that I would decide vehicle purchase based solely on energy savings paying for higher initial price.  A rough guess is that I would have spent +/- $1,700 for electricity at $0.20/kWh and about $3,000 for gas at +/- 20 MPG.  My savings would have been about half of yours.  To make BEV even harder to justify, we drive each vehicle closer to about 8,500 miles per year, so total energy savings would be well under $1,000 per year.  That doesn’t pay for much initial price premium.

 

For buyers who are comparing much smaller and fuel-efficient vehicles, energy savings between BEV and comparable-size ICE or HEV doesn’t add up to much.  For mass adoption to succeed, in my opinion lower vehicle cost will be necessary unless gasoline is artificially made much more expensive.

 

Good points.

I still think that Ford offering HEV, PHEV and BEVs on specific vehicles will be a winning strategy exactly because of what you pointed out.  Reaching ICE buyers with electric choices that suit their particular situation and needs is way more important that rolling out some grandiose master plan of 100% BEVs by some fairytale date. If Ford is smart, their electrification strategy will reach far more buyers than say, GM and educate ICE buyers about the virtues of varying degrees of electrification. I’m sure that in a lot of rural situations, a gasoline hybrid or a PHEV is going to make way more sense than a BEV but conversely, in an urban situation, maybe a BEV makes way more sense if inner city parking garages are fitted with chargers while people are at work. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by jpd80

[jpd80]

On 8/19/2023 at 1:42 AM, rperez817 said:

 

Based on Jim Farley's desire for Ford to emphasize a totally different, vertically integrated approach to BEV design, engineering, manufacturing, and sales; his emphasis on "passion" or "icon" brands; and also for Ford to exit overcrowded and/or low margin segments, I think it's all of the above.

The huge irony there is that as sedans became commodity vehicles with low profitability, they were replaced by more profitable two row utilities that in turn now are being seen as commodity vehicles. The fun part here is that Ford and other manufacturers took the win of higher profit utility sales but have now burned through those vehicles virtues because they want to go chase the next big thing, high profit BEVs……but are they high profit?

 

I would put a lack of profit in two row utilities down to For’s  mishandling of Edge/Nautilus and Escape/Corsair evolution and merging onto C2. The virtues of scales of economy with design and HEV/PHEV were denied or just plain outright ignored over the years exactly because of silo developments. Today those four vehicles along with Bronco Sport and Maverick should all be on C2 and thriving sales success thanks to hybrids and PHEVs ……yet here we are with lost opportunities to build out production at Oakville, Louisville and Hermosillo. Ford should be going wild with sales of these products…..

Edited August 25, 2023 by jpd80

[akirby]

42 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

The huge irony there is that as sedans became commodity vehicles with low profitability, they were replaced by more profitable two row utilities that in turn now are being seen as commodity vehicles. The fun part here is that Ford and other manufacturers took the win of higher profit utility sales but have now burned through those vehicles virtues because they want to go chase the next big thing, high profit BEVs……but are they high profit?

 

I would put a lack of profit in two row utilities down to For’s  mishandling of Edge/Nautilus and Escape/Corsair evolution and merging onto C2. The virtues of scales of economy with design and HEV/PHEV were denied or just plain outright ignored over the years exactly because of silo developments. Today those four vehicles along with Bronco Sport and Maverick should all be on C2 and thriving sales success thanks to hybrids and PHEVs ……yet here we are with lost opportunities to build out production at Oakville, Louisville and Hermosillo. Ford should be going wild with sales of these products…..

I think BEVs are highly profitable once you get past the up front investment.  I also think 2 row crossovers (he said crossovers not just utilities) are still higher profit than sedans but not as high as 4wd utilities and trucks that have off road packages and higher trims and more options and hybrids and PHEVs.

[jpd80]

31 minutes ago, akirby said:

I think BEVs are highly profitable once you get past the up front investment.

With, that’s the big problem with Ford looking at upward of $50 billion total spend, it needs Ford Blue to pay for that huge up front cost and in order to do that, those ICE,HEV AND PHEV vehicles all need to remain profitable vehicle. (I readily admits that many in the past barely covered their own development and manufacturing costs and basically just vehicles for dealers to service). 
 

Quote

 I also think 2 row crossovers (he said crossovers not just utilities) are still higher profit than sedans but not as high as 4wd utilities and trucks that have off road packages and higher trims and more options and hybrids and PHEVs.

Of course but there’s also opportunity to 1) control costs and 2) maximise reach to buyers with more desirable versions. Things like C2 Escape missed the mark with euro based soft styling but I get that squarer Escape  is covered by Bronco Sport. The frustrating part for me is that all these vehicles could have and should have been handled better in both design and styling execution. Also aware of the RWD CD6 Edge misstep cancelled late, unfortunate problems that obviously hindered Ford.

 

Its the old thing with Ford, when it changes, it single focuses on the new thing and drops the ball with existing good ideas, I just hope refocusing on the hybrids and PHEVs adds to Ford Blue’s profits and gives buyers more products while Ford works through changes in evolving BEV plans. Not sure what’s going on with Lightning sales but feel it may be a victim of current demand for gasoline F150, I want Ford to have four strong months up to the end of the year. With plenty of cash, it can do a lot more short term.

 

Maybe I just have own frustration to work through, so long as F Series sales remain strong, other product will get carry through sales at dealerships (rising tide lifts all boats). There’s also mischief makers in media reports at the moment trying to make things sound worse than they are, strong Q3 profit migh shut them up…

Edited August 25, 2023 by jpd80

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The huge irony there is that as sedans became commodity vehicles with low profitability, they were replaced by more profitable two row utilities that in turn now are being seen as commodity vehicles. The fun part here is that Ford and other manufacturers took the win of higher profit utility sales but have now burned through those vehicles virtues because they want to go chase the next big thing, high profit BEVs……but are they high profit?

 

They can be, assuming Ford is successful with a totally different approach to designing, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing its BEV. Regarding Ford's 2 row ICE utilities in the U.S. market, it looks like a lot of prospective customers followed the advice that Car and Driver gave in its review of 2020 Escape (December 2019 issue). 

 

One of the chief benefits of crossovers to car companies is that they tend to have higher profit margins than cars do. It makes sense that Ford would want to continue to capitalize on this by charging more for the Escape than any reasonable person would pay. That doesn't mean we should all play along.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

They can be, assuming Ford is successful with a totally different approach to designing, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing its BEV. Regarding Ford's 2 row ICE utilities in the U.S. market, it looks like a lot of prospective customers followed the advice that Car and Driver gave in its review of 2020 Escape (December 2019 issue). 

 

And on that point, something like a C2 Edge repositioned as the new larger wider Escape should,have been able to justify a higher price. Ford adopted the same wrong thinking with price that pervaded its European division, they forgot about perceived value to the customer, space is everything and the new Edge was just too narrow for the price.

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I still think that Ford offering HEV, PHEV and BEVs on specific vehicles will be a winning strategy exactly because of what you pointed out.

Higher costs is a real BEV issue, but if I’m completely honest, electricity supply/availability is a greater concern for me.  I don’t want to make a bad problem worse by adding to it, especially since we are already struggling to keep up.  I received a notice today to conserve electricity August 24 through 28 from 2 p.m. to 9 p.m.  Temperatures have been near record highs almost every day which hasn’t helped.

 

Today I lost power at home again, and while it wasn’t for lack of generation capacity (as far as I know), I question if utility is investing enough to maintain and upgrade as needed versus spending too much in other areas.  I still think the grid needs to be upgraded first before increasing demand substantially.

[AM222]

11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I would put a lack of profit in two row utilities down to For’s  mishandling of Edge/Nautilus and Escape/Corsair evolution and merging onto C2. The virtues of scales of economy with design and HEV/PHEV were denied or just plain outright ignored over the years exactly because of silo developments. Today those four vehicles along with Bronco Sport and Maverick should all be on C2 and thriving sales success thanks to hybrids and PHEVs ……yet here we are with lost opportunities to build out production at Oakville, Louisville and Hermosillo. Ford should be going wild with sales of these products…..

These C2 hybrid Ford cousins of the new Nautilus are waving. Lol


PS: Based on the spy photos, the Evos will gain a hybrid option.

[HotRunrGuy]

7 hours ago, Rick73 said:

HI don’t want to make a bad problem worse by adding to it, especially since we are already struggling to keep up.  I received a notice today to conserve electricity August 24 through 28 from 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. 

 

Doin' my part,,,,,,

 

Hahaha, HRG

[AGR]

13 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The huge irony there is that as sedans became commodity vehicles with low profitability, they were replaced by more profitable two row utilities that in turn now are being seen as commodity vehicles. The fun part here is that Ford and other manufacturers took the win of higher profit utility sales but have now burned through those vehicles virtues because they want to go chase the next big thing, high profit BEVs……but are they high profit?

 

I would put a lack of profit in two row utilities down to For’s  mishandling of Edge/Nautilus and Escape/Corsair evolution and merging onto C2. The virtues of scales of economy with design and HEV/PHEV were denied or just plain outright ignored over the years exactly because of silo developments. Today those four vehicles along with Bronco Sport and Maverick should all be on C2 and thriving sales success thanks to hybrids and PHEVs ……yet here we are with lost opportunities to build out production at Oakville, Louisville and Hermosillo. Ford should be going wild with sales of these products…..

 

If you account for the COVID delays, you can put this mess squarely on the shoulders of Office Furniture Guy.

[edselford]

Has any governmental agency/ commercial corporation done a complete study of EV vehicle usage on CO2 levels?

when I say complete, I mean birth to death analysis for all the energy/emissions, employment levels etc?

I ask this question probably a little too late but every time I look at any EV vehicles, I see a very heavy vehicle requiring very large brakes and tires and I question the wisdom of betting the farm on EV’s.

I am old(74) and remember in the 1970’s focusing on finding pounds we could take out of cars to be able to put them in a lower inertia class for improved vehicle economy!

Now we are producing “tanks” for trucks and SUV’s that thrill people going from  zero to 60 mph in 4 to 5 seconds.

where is the wisdom in that?

All of the cost analysis are interesting but when government agencies realize all the revenue taxes they loose by having people switch to EV’s I am sure the real cost of EV will be adjusted to make up the shortfall.

edselford

 

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Doin' my part,,,,,,

 

Hahaha, HRG

 

It is not that I don’t like EVs, I actually do for many applications.  However, on a day like yesterday when we tied the all-time 109 F record high (actual temperature and with humidity on top of that), losing air conditioning for hours was a reminder that we can’t put millions of BEVs on the road without first upgrading the grid and distribution to handle the added load.

I find it discouraging that my wife and I are having to make an effort to keep our vehicles fairly full of gas in case we lose power and have no other way to stay cool but to idle with air conditioning on.  I have small generator but it can’t power house A/C.  I know there are plans to limit electrical loads by charging at night and so on, but as far as I know reality is that there are few ways to actually limit someone from plugging their EV after work when loads are at peak.

 

[Rangers09]

15 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Good points.

I still think that Ford offering HEV, PHEV and BEVs on specific vehicles will be a winning strategy exactly because of what you pointed out.  Reaching ICE buyers with electric choices that suit their particular situation and needs is way more important that rolling out some grandiose master plan of 100% BEVs by some fairytale date. If Ford is smart, their electrification strategy will reach far more buyers than say, GM and educate ICE buyers about the virtues of varying degrees of electrification. I’m sure that in a lot of rural situations, a gasoline hybrid or a PHEV is going to make way more sense than a BEV but conversely, in an urban situation, maybe a BEV makes way more sense if inner city parking garages are fitted with chargers while people are at work. 

 

Totally agree and this is why we opted for the Escape PHEV.

 

Although the range is published as only 37 miles, I easily get 50+ miles from a full charge. Around town, in 2-months of owning the vehicle we have enjoyed 100% electric. When off on road trips, we don't have to look for the almost non-existent chargers necessary for a BEV. On a 2-week road trip, I only spotted 1 charger and being unable to plug-in, we operated it as a normal hybrid. The distances driven in the previous 2019 Escape would have used 2 tanks of gas, but with the PHEV we used only 1/2 tank of gas, departing on a full charge and arriving home with zero charge. In our experience, the PHEV is an exceptional transition, until the battery technology improves and charging stations are readily available.

 

While we have lots of Teslas in town, but in our neighbourhood the ratio is PHEV/HEV - 5, BEV - zero.

 

Our dealer is selling so many Escape PHEV's, he is purchasing any PHEV he finds that are sitting on other dealer lots. If Ford had other PHEV options, I have no doubt those would sell as well as the Escape.

[rperez817]

10 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Today I lost power at home again, and while it wasn’t for lack of generation capacity (as far as I know), I question if utility is investing enough to maintain and upgrade as needed versus spending too much in other areas. 

 

My local electric utility company, Oncor, is investing in various initiatives for improving grid resiliency. Not only will that accommodate the growth of BEV, but BEV with V2G capabilities (such as Ford F-150 Lightning) can in return enhance the stability of the electric grid and reduce the frequency of outages.

 

In Dallas, Oncor is doing a research project with Toyota involving 4 interconnected microgrids that includes V2G supply equipment, solar panels and battery storage. The microgrids can be run independently, or combined into a single larger system. Ford has been doing similar pilot projects with PG&E in California. 

Toyota Delves into EV technology with new V2G pilot (electrek.co)

PG&E and Ford Collaborate on Bidirectional Electric Vehicle Charging Technology in Customers’ Homes | Business Wire

[Willwll313wll]

3 hours ago, AM222 said:

These C2 hybrid Ford cousins of the new Nautilus are waving. Lol


PS: Based on the spy photos, the Evos will gain a hybrid option.

 

Still can not fathom why the Evos was not sold here as a fusion. It's still a looker! Ugh, make me CEO dammit!

[rmc523]

4 hours ago, AM222 said:

These C2 hybrid Ford cousins of the new Nautilus are waving. Lol


PS: Based on the spy photos, the Evos will gain a hybrid option.

 

I think they should bring Evos over.

 

That "Edge" though, no.  it's not an Edge in my book.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

My local electric utility company, Oncor, is investing in various initiatives for improving grid resiliency. Not only will that accommodate the growth of BEV, but BEV with V2G capabilities (such as Ford F-150 Lightning) can in return enhance the stability of the electric grid and reduce the frequency of outages.

 

In Dallas, Oncor is doing a research project with Toyota involving 4 interconnected microgrids that includes V2G supply equipment, solar panels and battery storage. The microgrids can be run independently, or combined into a single larger system. Ford has been doing similar pilot projects with PG&E in California. 

Toyota Delves into EV technology with new V2G pilot (electrek.co)

PG&E and Ford Collaborate on Bidirectional Electric Vehicle Charging Technology in Customers’ Homes | Business Wire

 

V2G and similar efforts will have limited impact on overall grid in my opinion.  V2G is a good idea that should be fully evaluated and pursued if it makes sense, but numbers suggest to me that it is like comparing a First Aid Kit with a proper Hospital Emergency Room.  We need both, but ultimately we need so much power that it will take huge investment.  V2G will help but it’s not a primary solution IMO.

 

The average US household consumed 11,880 kWh in 2020, so we can see that many families with two or more vehicles could easily need an additional 50% of energy or greater.  A member here mentioned traveling 17,000 miles in one year, and if at +/- 2 miles per kWh, it would take 8,500 kWh annually.  That’s a large percentage of a single household’s average 11,880 kWh.

 

V2G may be a great “backup”, particularly at first when BEVs are a small percentage of total vehicles, but can it really contribute much as BEVs become much more popular?  I think we need to get busy building power plants because we will need a lot of power for BEVs.

 

 

“The program will focus on the benefits of V2G technology for both customers and the energy grid. The ability for electric vehicles to send power to and from the car’s battery to the grid has made them powerful backup energy options.“

[Oac98]

4 hours ago, Willwll313wll said:

 

Still can not fathom why the Evos was not sold here as a fusion. It's still a looker! Ugh, make me CEO dammit!

The Evos looks great but it reminds me of an ICE version of the Mach-E. It’s quite clear that they have styling similarities. Am I wrong?

[tbone]

3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I think they should bring Evos over.

 

That "Edge" though, no.  it's not an Edge in my book.

I agree they should manufacture the Evos here.   It’s a great looking vehicle that I think would sell well. After the dump the NA Edge they are going to be slim on product.  
 

The Edge on the other hand, is a hard pass.  That needs substantial rework for the US market IMO.  

[Oac98]

3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I think they should bring Evos over.

 

That "Edge" though, no.  it's not an Edge in my book.

Agreed that wagon Chinese Edge sure as hell don’t look like an Edge to me.