Escape, Edge, TC to be Killed

[ice-capades]

1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Jim Farley just did an interview on Fox News Friday morning. He acknowledged the honeymoon is over for EVs now that the early adopters have come and gone. The problem is it seems IMO they have no clue how to sell them to the general public and his comments don’t really make me feel any better about it. 
 

the part about EVs starts at the 2:55 mark 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6336292959112

 

Not encouraging for sure. More smoke and mirrors!

[rperez817]

13 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

Ford will only win with BEV's if that is what the market wants and Ford can provide the product. 

 

Mass adoption of BEV is well underway. Over 2 years ago, Professor Dans correctly predicted that the "tipping point" for BEV mass adoption would be reached in 2021 and summarized the 5 main factors associated with this market trend. The Five Factors Driving The Mass Adoption Of Electric Vehicles (forbes.com)

 

Ford's ability to "provide the product" was a major issue following the initial release of Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, but this should be ameliorated nowadays thanks to the recent plant capacity expansions at CSAP and REVC.

 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by rperez817

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Jim Farley just did an interview on Fox News Friday morning. He acknowledged the honeymoon is over for EVs now that the early adopters have come and gone. The problem is it seems IMO they have no clue how to sell them to the general public and his comments don’t really make me feel any better about it. 
 

the part about EVs starts at the 2:55 mark 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6336292959112

Point on early adopters is valid, especially at higher vehicle costs because some of these buyers pay whatever it takes to get what they want, as if they have money to burn.  However, that seems to be changing even for Tesla which have reduced Model S/X prices significantly because volume is down.  By comparison, the much lower cost Model 3/Y are doing far better.  All cars are expensive today, but high-cost BEVs will have little success with the masses IMO because there is little justification for them compared to buying a lower-cost Model 3/Y, or similar.  Whether buyer wants to save money or save the planet, cheaper BEVs are a better choice.

 

Competition also won’t stand still, creating an even bigger challenge for Ford.  As example, Tesla just introduced new Model 3 refresh which is more aero and has greater range than current US Model 3.  Unless Ford can reduce Mach E price significantly, it might have tough time competing with Tesla 3/Y.

 

 

[Footballfan]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Highly doubtful..there is already investment in improving charging infrastructure and companies have already spent billions on developing EVs-and you have EU and China mandates coming into effect sooner than US ones, which is a nebulous 50% of new car sales in 2030.

 

As for administration actions- Trump wanted to rollback CAFE a few years ago and there was pushback due to money invested already in  meeting them. 

I think comparing China to the US is like comparing apples to oranges.  China is opening about 1 coal fired power plant a week so they'll have sufficient power capacity to power the EVs unlike the US that is shutting down coal fired power plants and are targeting natural gas

and nuclear next.  IMHO China's move to EVs has nothing to do with the environment as it does national security.  China has a lot of coal reserves, but they have to import most of their oil.  Mandating EVs that can be charged by coal fired power plants can wean China off of imported oil. 

 

I think at the end of the day free market forces will prevail.  There may be a day when EVs cost no more than ICE vehicles, will take no longer to charge than filling up a gas tank, and charging stations on the open road will be as abundant as gas pumps.  But I think we're talking a few decades or more for that to happen. 

 

[silvrsvt]

57 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

I think comparing China to the US is like comparing apples to oranges.  China is opening about 1 coal fired power plant a week so they'll have sufficient power capacity to power the EVs unlike the US that is shutting down coal fired power plants and are targeting natural gas

and nuclear next.  IMHO China's move to EVs has nothing to do with the environment as it does national security.  China has a lot of coal reserves, but they have to import most of their oil.  Mandating EVs that can be charged by coal fired power plants can wean China off of imported oil. 

 

I think at the end of the day free market forces will prevail.  There may be a day when EVs cost no more than ICE vehicles, will take no longer to charge than filling up a gas tank, and charging stations on the open road will be as abundant as gas pumps.  But I think we're talking a few decades or more for that to happen. 

 

No the point your missing is that Ford is done spending money on products that are sold just in one market. With EVs your completely eliminate the need for emissions standards testing and crash testing is just good business/PR/marketing

 

Charging stations are being added as we speak-the more EVs on the road will drive more charging stations, this isn't going to be an overnight thing either..the market will keep growing as pricing drops (more production capacity-there should be enough battery production to meet 75-80% or more of the production capacity of NA (all makes) by 2030)

 

in five years time its going to be a completely different landscape. 

[GearheadGrrrl]

In rural areas which we all travel through the numbers just don't work for charging stations. I'm in a small town at the intersection of two state and federal highways with a combined traffic count of around 5000 a day. Nearest spot with traffic counts this high is at least 20 miles away so this should supposedly be a good spot for a charging station. Problem is there's nowhere near 100 EVs within those 20 miles and most of them are PHEVs. Our town get offered grants for 50% of the cost of a charging station, but they don't include the cost of upgrading over 20 miles of old power line to feed the charging station. Even a bare bones installation would be over $100K and we'd have to come up with over half of that, or $50K plus incidentals like a bathroom, etc.. That $50K is more than our towns annual budget, and getting caught up on street, park, and utility maintenance is clearly a higher priority. And we're in better shape than most of the small towns out here...

 

Fact is, rural; areas won't be able to support EVs for decades, if ever.

[DeluxeStang]

17 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

 

 

Fact is, rural; areas won't be able to support EVs for decades, if ever.

EV adoption will be slower in rural areas, but it's already starting to happen. I stopped to get gas in Fillmore, UT on the way to Vegas. There were Tesla charging stations. Fillmore is about as rural is you can get ?. 

[AGR]

2 hours ago, Footballfan said:

I think comparing China to the US is like comparing apples to oranges.  China is opening about 1 coal fired power plant a week so they'll have sufficient power capacity to power the EVs unlike the US that is shutting down coal fired power plants and are targeting natural gas

and nuclear next.  IMHO China's move to EVs has nothing to do with the environment as it does national security.  China has a lot of coal reserves, but they have to import most of their oil.  Mandating EVs that can be charged by coal fired power plants can wean China off of imported oil. 

 

 

Since we really don't have enough oil to keep us energy independent for very long, national security is a damn good reason for us to be moving towards EVs, too. Unlike China, we have an abundance of natural gas, so we can afford to do away with most of our coal power plants.

Edited September 3, 2023 by AGR

[AGR]

Back on the original topic...

Since our resident insider has stated that there will be an Escape EV, my uneducated take on the rest is this:

For the rumors of two midsize two row CUVs, I think there will be a "normal" one called the Edge EV, and the Mach-E (II) will be the "coupe" version.

The 3 row will have a new/old name and not Explorer.

The Bronco Sport will have FWD and hybrid versions to cover some of the ICE Escape's range.

Explorer will continue as is.

[GearheadGrrrl]

33 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

EV adoption will be slower in rural areas, but it's already starting to happen. I stopped to get gas in Fillmore, UT on the way to Vegas. There were Tesla charging stations. Fillmore is about as rural is you can get ?. 

Fillmore's on an Interstate, I'm 40 miles from an Interstate. 

[Footballfan]

1 hour ago, AGR said:

 

Since we really don't have enough oil to keep us energy independent for very long, national security is a damn good reason for us to be moving towards EVs, too. Unlike China, we have an abundance of natural gas, so we can afford to do away with most of our coal power plants.

Actually, the US has more oil reserves than any nation in the world- over four times as much as China.  I'm with you on natural gas (as well as nuclear) but there are some that wasn't to do away with that as well.

[AGR]

1 hour ago, Footballfan said:

Actually, the US has more oil reserves than any nation in the world- over four times as much as China.  I'm with you on natural gas (as well as nuclear) but there are some that wasn't to do away with that as well.

 

Yes, but we also CONSUME more than anyone else. At current consumption rates, I would give us about 8-10 years of energy independence if we stopped importing petroleum. I myself am really tired of buying oil from the scum of the earth that seems to control most of the world's oil supply.

And before you attempt to chime in about battery materials, we have those, too. The USGS is conducting the first comprehensive survey of our mineral deposits in decades, and they have found massive deposits of lithium, nickel, and other battery minerals. (which by the way, are reuseable and recyclable unlike fuel)

Drill for the present, EVs for the future.

[AM222]

On 9/1/2023 at 1:43 AM, ANTAUS said:

As sales of the Camry and Accord have dropped, many of their buyers migrated to the CRV and Rav4 which is understandable.  Ford dropped Fusion, and with the Escape exiting, what is the typical Ford buyer expected to migrate to if there's no Escape or Edge?  Make a $15-20K jump to an Explorer?

I guess they want people to jump to a Mach e. This won't work outside the US and Canada where the Mach e is positioned as a premium/luxury model because of its high price. 

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, AGR said:

 

Since we really don't have enough oil to keep us energy independent for very long, national security is a damn good reason for us to be moving towards EVs, too. Unlike China, we have an abundance of natural gas, so we can afford to do away with most of our coal power plants.

So why are we not doing this coal to natural gas conversion much faster instead of taking our sweet time?  I’m not trying to be argumentative but rather asking a serious question which affects the reason for building BEVs in the first place.  With a committed effort the US should be able to replace all coal with NG within a decade or less.  Doesn’t it come down to cost?

 

Replacing coal with NG reduces CO2 emissions per kWh by a little over half, but doesn’t (nearly) eliminate CO2 like going to renewables and or nuclear.  These are not “zero” emissions either but close.

 

A major problem we face, however, is that demand for electricity continues to grow, making it very difficult to take existing coal capacity off-line.  And as we add even more demand on electric generation, it will keep coal plants in operation longer.  The more BEVs we put on the road before coal is eliminated, the longer these plants will be around.  China had similar problem except they didn’t have enough existing capacity so they are building new coal plants.  End result is the same, BEVs are being powered by coal which is far from ideal.

 

Global warming is real and we have to do something about it quickly, but cleaning up power generation (reduce CO2) must be the highest priority.  Slowing BEV adoption to allow decarbonization of electricity to catch up is a good thing.

 

 

[Andrew L]

3 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

EV adoption will be slower in rural areas, but it's already starting to happen. I stopped to get gas in Fillmore, UT on the way to Vegas. There were Tesla charging stations. Fillmore is about as rural is you can get ?. 

 

I posted this over at GMI but I was just on a business trip to Bartlesville, OK which is in the middle of nowhere and they only have 2 charging stations in town both of which are not Tesla charging stations.  My co-worker owns a Tesla Model 3 and drove it up from Dallas.  He was not able to charge at all the entire week he was there and was 45 miles to empty when he was getting ready to leave which theoretically should have been enough to get him to Tulsa when he got on the highway his range dropped quickly so he had to turn around and come back.  One of the folks at the office was nice enough to let him park at their house and plug in to a regular electrical outlet in their garage overnight which got him 100 miles.  He was then able to make it to Tulsa to get to a Tesla charging station and get home. 

 

Yes he had a bag of adapters and no, none of them fit the charging stations they had in town.  We tried to get one of them to fit but it had a weird lip that was preventing it.  He got a screw driver and tried to pry it on which kind of worked but got a charging error when he got it hooked up to the car.

[Rangers09]

5 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Mass adoption of BEV is well underway. Over 2 years ago, Professor Dans correctly predicted that the "tipping point" for BEV mass adoption would be reached in 2021 and summarized the 5 main factors associated with this market trend. The Five Factors Driving The Mass Adoption Of Electric Vehicles (forbes.com)

 

Ford's ability to "provide the product" was a major issue following the initial release of Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, but this should be ameliorated nowadays thanks to the recent plant capacity expansions at CSAP and REVC.

 

 

 

I'll suggest we have different definitions of the term "Mass Adoption"

 

Based on the July 2023 sales figures, which is 2-years after the academic predicted mass adoption, Ford sold a massive 6,290 BEV's during the month. This is only 3.6% of the total monthly sales and was an 18% reduction in sales from July 2022. A meagre 3.6% of total sales definitely doesn't meet my definition of mass adoption and the bigger concern was the downward trend.

 

August sales figures will be very interesting, since they can no longer use the excuse of being unable to build the products.

[fuzzymoomoo]

11 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

So why are we not doing this coal to natural gas conversion much faster instead of taking our sweet time?

That’s an easy one. Politics. 

[Rick73]

6 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

That’s an easy one. Politics. 

Exactly.  We can do better by investing whatever limited resources we have as a society towards electric generation, but the difference is that a California governor can mandate change without having to come up with funds to build new plants himself.  BEV mandates pass the buck to auto industry and vehicle buyers who at some point won’t have a choice but to comply.  Given a choice, I want my money (invested as a buyer or taxed) to first go towards decarbonization of generation/grid while I’m still driving a gasoline car, then when we have plenty of electricity, I’ll gladly switch to BEV.

[Rangers09]

4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

No the point your missing is that Ford is done spending money on products that are sold just in one market. With EVs your completely eliminate the need for emissions standards testing and crash testing is just good business/PR/marketing

 

Charging stations are being added as we speak-the more EVs on the road will drive more charging stations, this isn't going to be an overnight thing either..the market will keep growing as pricing drops (more production capacity-there should be enough battery production to meet 75-80% or more of the production capacity of NA (all makes) by 2030)

 

in five years time its going to be a completely different landscape. 

 

Yes, charging stations are being added, but locally it is at a snail's pace.

 

In our town approaching 100,000, we have 2 at the hospital, 2 the council installed downtown and a newly installed bank of about 6 Tesla chargers. At this time, only Teslas can use their chargers, so we basically have 4 chargers for non-Teslas in our entire town. Once we leave town and head to the country - Zero. During a recent trip for 2 weeks in Victoria, I spotted 1 charger, I expect they have more, but I didn't see them.

 

We have an abundance of hydro generating capacity and transmission capacity to bring the power to the cities, but local distribution networks can be limited, so it isn't always easy/cheap to add chargers.

 

Can't comment on other cities and countries, but locally, it will be many, many years before we have an adequate supply of public charging stations.

[fuzzymoomoo]

21 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Given a choice, I want my money (invested as a buyer or taxed) to first go towards decarbonization of generation/grid while I’m still driving a gasoline car, then when we have plenty of electricity, I’ll gladly switch to BEV.

I’ve long said something similar. This whole thing has been a case study of putting the cart before the horse. 

[silvrsvt]

29 minutes ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Yes, charging stations are being added, but locally it is at a snail's pace.

 

In our town approaching 100,000, we have 2 at the hospital, 2 the council installed downtown and a newly installed bank of about 6 Tesla chargers. At this time, only Teslas can use their chargers, so we basically have 4 chargers for non-Teslas in our entire town. Once we leave town and head to the country - Zero. During a recent trip for 2 weeks in Victoria, I spotted 1 charger, I expect they have more, but I didn't see them.

 

We have an abundance of hydro generating capacity and transmission capacity to bring the power to the cities, but local distribution networks can be limited, so it isn't always easy/cheap to add chargers.

 

Can't comment on other cities and countries, but locally, it will be many, many years before we have an adequate supply of public charging stations.

Do have a large amount of EVs in the area? Where I live at, Tesla superchargers are being added to local convenience chain called Wawa and the local Targets are getting level two chargers in parking spots. I’ve seen a huge increase in places to charge within a 15-20 minute ride from house with more coming. We have a pretty good amount of Teslas and Mach Es in the area too 

[GearheadGrrrl]

For EVs to work charging will have to be as available and fast as gas stations provide. 

 

Friday I day tripped almost 400 miles to a threshing show, left at :30 before dawn, enjoyed 6 hours of steam and other old tech in action, and got home 15 minutes before sunset. There are reputedly two charging stations in a town midway on my route, would have had to stop both ways and had to cut my day short or get home after dark. Either that or take a long route to pass by more chargers and cut more into my time at the threshing show or drive more after dark. Worse yet, if the two charging sites 100 miles out were down I would have had to head home, not wanting to wander farther than I'd have charge to make it home.

 

Most of these rural chargers are heavily subsidized, are really used, and they'll become even rarer as they fail and will cost more to repair than they'll produce in revenue. This is why elecrification will take decades out here if it ever happens and we will need IC and PHEV cars for the foreseeable future... Automakers, please don't take away our mobility by forcing us into EVs!

[CKNSLS]

On 9/1/2023 at 5:39 PM, DeluxeStang said:

To be fair, all the brands you mentioned are killing off sedans and hatchbacks for the N. American market. Honda stopped setting the fit here, and rumors occasionally pop up about the Accord being discontinued. Nissan is pulling the Altima out of N. America, announced this week. Kia and Hyundai are pulling out, and Toyota stopped selling the yaris here, with additional rumors than the Camry might turn into a CUV if the sedan segment keeps declining.

 

As for the Ford outback rival, I heard good things about it, seems like the project has been either delayed or canceled. Maybe they plan to make it one of their EVs so delayed it for a few years to reengineer it, or something like that. 

The Honda Fit was a terrible vehicle and never really competitive. The Yaris was a penalty box as well. My point-they stopped selling two vehicles that by any stretch were not great.

[AM222]

On 9/2/2023 at 7:39 AM, DeluxeStang said:

As for the Ford outback rival, I heard good things about it, seems like the project has been either delayed or canceled. 

Isn't that the crossover that turned out to be the Evos (the 5-door CUV version of the new Mondeo/Taurus). The one Ford said won't be coming to North America. 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by AM222

[jpd80]

21 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Jim Farley just did an interview on Fox News Friday morning. He acknowledged the honeymoon is over for EVs now that the early adopters have come and gone. The problem is it seems IMO they have no clue how to sell them to the general public and his comments don’t really make me feel any better about it. 
 

the part about EVs starts at the 2:55 mark 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6336292959112

Farley seemed a little flustered talking about the problems with selling BEVs straight after commenting on the offe to the UAW.

Under all the rhetoric, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Farley is a worried man, BEVs should be an easy sale to buyers, except they’re not. So I suspect that he will rock back towards hybrids and PHEVs to keep the spin on electrification going. August sales are going to be intersting, I’m not convinced that Ford will see a big rebound in Lightning and Mach E sales but glad to be proven wrong.

Edited September 4, 2023 by jpd80