akirby Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 42 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: I question whether traditional auto companies have the battery supply chain to compete with Tesla in the BEV segment. Tesla will produce about 500,000 BEVs this year and probably at least 750,000+ next year. Who can compete against that with their weak battery supply chains? Rivian will be lucky to have a vehicle ready for sale next year along with the other startups, and all the traditional auto companies are battery constrained with no resolution in sight. Ford has been buying batteries since 2005 - they're not new to the game. And Panasonic supplies most of Tesla's battery cells. Tesla sold 179K vehicles globally 1st half of this year so nowhere near 500K this year (or last year). There is plenty of capacity to go around. The only thing holding volume mfrs back is profitability and I think we just crossed that threshold with base prices in the $30Ks and 300+ mile ranges. We'll see what the real market is for BEVs over the next 3 years. Personally I see Tesla fading with a lot of worthy competition and low volume new stuff like cybertrucks and Semi Trucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, valve said: More supply is coming online all the time. As the automotive world continues to increase the supply of EVs, based upon consumer demand, the vehicles will be available. If Tesla wants to continue to sell vehicles at a loss, i think the other automotive manufacturers are happy to let them do so. At the end of the day, profits are the name of the game and Tesla only produces a profit by selling their credits. As more manufactures start selling EVs, Tesla's credits will become worthless so they better figure out how to start selling cars profitably. You may be correct, but so far I see no evidence of a robust battery supply chain by Tesla BEV competitors. I'm also sure Tesla will have many surprises coming as in increased range and updated Model X and S. Ford will maybe sell 50,000 Mach Es next.year and the Jaguar I Pace is very low volume. Ditto for Porsche Taycan. I know there will many other competitors, but Tesla has the electric infrastructure in place, superior software, dominant range, and the ability to ramp up quickly. Musk is always pulling rabbits out of his hat at increasing pace. Now what happens if he gets sick as he looks pretty bloated and tired, who knows. Lots of variables to be sure. Time will tell as always. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valve Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 A timely article from Ford Authority: https://fordauthority.com/2020/08/ford-content-sourcing-ev-batteries-from-suppliers-instead-of-making-its-own/ “The supply chain has ramped up since Elon [Musk] built his Gigafactory, and so there’s plenty there that does not warrant us to migrate our capital into owning our own factory,” Hackett said. “There’s no advantage in the ownership in terms of cost or sourcing.” Ford’s issue with such an investment relates to scale, as FoMoCo’s head of product development and purchasing, Hau Thai-Tang, revealed in a recent analyst call. “We don’t have that volume initially to justify that capital expenditure,” he said. “There’s insufficient scale for any one OEM, other than somebody who’s a full-line battery-electric manufacturer like Tesla, to justify that spending.” Thai-Tang also pointed to Toyota as a cautionary tale of what happens when an automaker invests heavily in one type of battery. “They invested to vertically integrate nickel-metal hydride batteries for their hybrids. And after spending over $1 billion to do that, the technology shifted to lithium ion, and they were among the last to switch over. I don’t want to put Ford in that position.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 17 hours ago, FordBuyer said: You may be correct, but so far I see no evidence of a robust battery supply chain by Tesla BEV competitors. I'm also sure Tesla will have many surprises coming as in increased range and updated Model X and S. Ford will maybe sell 50,000 Mach Es next.year and the Jaguar I Pace is very low volume. Ditto for Porsche Taycan. I know there will many other competitors, but Tesla has the electric infrastructure in place, superior software, dominant range, and the ability to ramp up quickly. Musk is always pulling rabbits out of his hat at increasing pace. Now what happens if he gets sick as he looks pretty bloated and tired, who knows. Lots of variables to be sure. Time will tell as always. It would be interesting (if it were possible) to create a digest of how much battery capacity is under construction. In Georgia, SK has already completed one battery plant, and broken ground on a sister plant which will result in a total battery capacity of 310,000 vehicles: https://www.georgia.org/newsroom/press-releases/sk-innovation-begin-construction-second-georgia-battery-facility-july Both Ford and VW are expected to use output from this plant. We know that GM are partnering with LG Chem to build their battery plant in Ohio. The output of the plant is claimed to be 30GWh, not sure what that translates into in terms of number of vehicles supported. There might be others, but these are the ones that came to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Tesla stock tanks 20% https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-automaker-sp-500-excluded-2020-9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: Tesla stock tanks 20% https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-automaker-sp-500-excluded-2020-9 Here's another story from Bloomberg. Note this quote: "(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. shares slid on Tuesday after the electric-vehicle maker missed out on being included in the S&P 500 Index, taking investors who had bet on its entry to the benchmark by surprise. "Tesla shares fell as much as 20% on Tuesday, the biggest one-day loss since early February. Declines started premarket and worsened as General Motors Co. said it would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola Corp. and partner with the fledgling truck maker to engineer and manufacture its Badger pickup. The news lifted Nikola shares by 46% while GM rose 8%... "Tesla’s failure to make it into the S&P 500 may be connected to 'question marks about the sustainability of regulatory emission credit sales which are currently underpinning earnings,' said Michael Dean, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shares-slump-p-500-085850903.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) Tesla 3Q 2020 update shows they're as strong as ever. Covid-19 impacted them less than the incumbent automakers. https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/4E7BR9_TSLA_Q3_2020_Update_P0Q85U.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D"TSLA-Q3-2020-Update.pdf" Highlights. Record vehicle deliveries, profitability and free cash flow Buildout of three new factories on three continents continues as planned First step of Full Self Driving beta rollout started in Oct. 2020 $5.9B increase in our cash and cash equivalents in Q3 to $14.5B Operating cash flow less capex (free cash flow) of $1.4B in Q3 $809M GAAP operating income; 9.2% operating margin in Q3 $331M GAAP net income; $874M non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC) in Q3 TSLA closed at $422.64 a share today. Note there was a 5 for 1 split on the stock, August 31, 2020. Edited October 21, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 And then there's reality..... https://www.autoblog.com/2020/10/21/tesla-quarterly-earnings-net-profit/ But as in previous quarters, the company may have lost money if it weren't for $397 million it earned from selling electric vehicle credits to other automakers so they can meet government fuel economy and pollution regulations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 (edited) On 10/21/2020 at 7:51 PM, rmc523 said: And then there's reality..... https://www.autoblog.com/2020/10/21/tesla-quarterly-earnings-net-profit/ Is Tesla a pyramid scheme? This feels like a pyramid scheme. Edited October 26, 2020 by probowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 (edited) TSLA will be part of S&P 500 starting December 21, 2020. It is by far the highest valued automobile manufacturer to be part of that index. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201116-1258362/1258362_tdec215addconsult.pdf Edited November 17, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 TSLA is now near $550 a share as of today. Autoline Daily TV show reported today that Tesla's market valuation is greater than all other publicly traded companies in the rest of the North American auto industry (automakers, suppliers, dealerships/retail) combined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, rperez817 said: TSLA is now near $550 a share as of today. Autoline Daily TV show reported today that Tesla's market valuation is greater than all other publicly traded companies in the rest of the North American auto industry (automakers, suppliers, dealerships/retail) combined. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coupe3w Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 I'm laughing all the way to the bank. I sold my Ford stock and bought Tesla. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, coupe3w said: I'm laughing all the way to the bank. I sold my Ford stock and bought Tesla. One bad quarter and it will drop like a rock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coupe3w Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Yup, they have been saying that for years. And that pertains to any stock. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 hour ago, coupe3w said: I'm laughing all the way to the bank. I sold my Ford stock and bought Tesla. Smart move coupe3w sir. You can also laugh at the Tesla short sellers and all the other naysayers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 If carbon credits go away (as an incentive to move to BEVs quicker) Tesla is going to be in a world of hurt. Their stock is way over valued. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 1:13 PM, coupe3w said: I'm laughing all the way to the bank. I sold my Ford stock and bought Tesla. And that is always been the problem, when you worry about "enhancing investor value" (i.e. selling carbon credits) over actually producing mainstream products. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 12:38 PM, rperez817 said: TSLA is now near $550 a share as of today. Autoline Daily TV show reported today that Tesla's market valuation is greater than all other publicly traded companies in the rest of the North American auto industry (automakers, suppliers, dealerships/retail) combined. Unfair comparison since Ford and GM do not build rocket ships that fly to the space station giving Tesla an exclusive customer in NASA. They also do not build home power generation products or a host of other "non-automotive" markets that Tesla is in. Tesla also has a tidy little "fuel delivery" system that is nationwide that Ford, GM or any other manufacturer does not have. I have long said that Tesla is a great forward thinking company that also happens to build cars for fun. If Tesla spun off it's automotive business tomorrow, they would still be an on-going company. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 9 hours ago, silvrsvt said: If carbon credits go away (as an incentive to move to BEVs quicker) Tesla is going to be in a world of hurt. They don’t have to even go away. As soon as the other mfrs start making their own BEVs they’ll stop buying credits. It’s always been a temporary game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 46 minutes ago, akirby said: They don’t have to even go away. As soon as the other mfrs start making their own BEVs they’ll stop buying credits. It’s always been a temporary game. Agreed but Tesla has a big head start with plants in the USA, China and the plant being constructed in Germany. All the other manufacturers combined don't produce or sell anywhere near the volume of BEV vehicles that Tesla does, at least for now. Tesla's reducing prices to compensate for the loss of the federal tax credits to keep volume up while showing profits because of the carbon credit sales to other manufacturers. There's no question that within the next few years that those carbon sales are going to disappear but we don't know how soon new battery technology will be available that could be a factor. As other manufacturers are advancing their BEV plans, Tesla's not sitting still either and I expect learning from their mistakes. It'll be interesting to see how things play out in the next year or two. And still, as critical as many are of Tesla for so many reasons, and of Musk, one has to respect the performance of SpaceX. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 3 hours ago, twintornados said: Unfair comparison since Ford and GM do not build rocket ships that fly to the space station giving Tesla an exclusive customer in NASA. Neither does Tesla. That's SpaceX. Completely separate companies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Neither does Tesla. That's SpaceX. Completely separate companies. You don't think the fact that while they may be "separate", that the SpaceX unit doesn't drive Tesla stock? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willwll313wll Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 This isn’t surprising considering the UK and California announcing the ban of new gas car sales, more places are likely to take similar stances over time... Pair that with the incoming Biden/Harris administration and what they are said to possibly invest in infrastructure and in going green, it’s no wonder the only mainstream all electric automaker stock continues to rise. Model Y on sale now too right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 53 minutes ago, twintornados said: You don't think the fact that while they may be "separate", that the SpaceX unit doesn't drive Tesla stock? No, I don't believe that at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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